The aftermath of the NFL draft reminds me of being a kid on Christmas afternoon. All the presents have been unwrapped and I can’t wait to celebrate next Christmas. Hopefully readers followed this column’s advice and benefited from Trey Lance going to San Francisco at 500 and Justin Fields to Chicago at 1700. For weeks I was convinced that Lance would be the third choice. Then, on the morning of the first day of drafting, I was pleased with the fact that it would be Mac Jones, only to see massive (and revealing) line movement toward Lance.
Is it really possible that some important people wanted Jones in the 49ers building but were convinced by those who wanted Lance that the fans were so against Jones that it would be difficult for him to get past all of the vitriol? I believe there is more than what can be imagined that too much truth has been accurately reported for it to be some kind of smoke screen.
By drafting a report, I longed for the days before social media where analysts had strong attitudes and often criticized players and tips. I remember Mel Kiper Jr. almost getting into a mid-air fist fight over the Colts that passed Trent Dilfer.
Now whenever a pick or player is criticized, the clip of the analyst who made him referred to as a bad pick, retweeted every time the player throws a touchdown pass. So the analysts play it safe. It is not worth making mistakes and risking their credibility. So you make mistakes in complimenting each choice, resulting in a very boring viewing experience. Do you know what is not boring? Pick a winner! Let’s find a few …
I would hope that my friends and family will find me a good person. But when it comes to betting, I proudly see myself as a vicious predator. Whenever I hear breaking news – a trade, an injury – my first instinct is always: How can I bet on this information and benefit from it?
When Russell Westbrook joined the Wizards, I risked injuring my thumb, the logged into all of my accounts so quickly that I fired on the 28.5-plus season victories (it closed at 33.5 a few weeks later). When news spread last week that Aaron Rodgers was unhappy and wanted to get out of Green Bay, my wheels immediately started spinning. The only problem was that we don’t know where he was going or if he was going. Future prices for his supposedly preferred destinations were quickly adjusted to accommodate a potential trade.
Some books have lowered their split quotas – but others have not. And so, in my opinion, we can benefit from this news. I wrote that in two of the three years leading up to last season, I expect the Vikings to go back to the form they showed in 10 or more games and a playoff competition, and if Rodgers left Green Bay , they’d become the heavy division favorite right away.
Maybe he’s playing in Las Vegas or Denver. Maybe he is hosting “Jeopardy!” or “Supermarket Sweep” and doesn’t play at all. When betting on the Vikings, you don’t have to predict where Rodgers will end up to gain value. Even if he stayed in Green Bay, his dismay might negatively affect the Packers. Or maybe the Packers window has slammed shut after two trips to the NFC title game and the Vikings will win that division anyway. This is going to be an intriguing game with chickens and I’m sure the NFL would like to know how to solve it before they release their television schedule anytime soon. The Vikings at plus money with the uncertainty in Green Bay is an opportunity to jump on.
Houston, who picked quarterback Davis Mills at number 67, was alarming on many levels. First, that was their first design choice. They’re also a team with gaping holes in the roster, and the only position they’re elite in is quarterback … assuming Deshaun Watson is available. This decision confirms that Texans must be thinking what I already believed – that Watson is extremely unlikely to start 17 games in the next season.
Most outlets tiptoeed over Watson’s legal issues. Part of betting, however, is obstructing and evaluating the unknown. Given the multitude of allegations and the precedent the league has set in dealing with off-field behavior, Watson is a huge underdog for getting out of this situation unscathed.
Oh, and the Texans only got four last year Won games, with Watson completing a total of 36 touchdowns against seven interceptions and completing more than 70 percent of his passes. At the AFC South, the Jaguars are likely to be greatly improved, and the Titans and Colts made the playoffs last year. Texans are messed up from top to bottom and may struggle to win more than two or three games. You will compete with the Lions for first choice in the design. Going under.
A good defense and an excellent young coach underline a team that has gradually improved since the middle of the 2019 season. Though the quarterback game was certainly bad last year, Tua Tagovailoa will have better weapons and perhaps be healthier than last season, just a year after suffering a serious hip injury. Jaylen Waddle and Will Fuller are going to add some juice to an urgent juicing offense, and Tagovailoa defenders will no longer have the excuse that he has no one to throw.
Even if Rodgers isn’t in with the dolphins I think they are a potential sleeper team for him. They check lots of boxes – big market, great weather, good roster, and no state income tax. They also have an abundance of equity drafts and could even offer Tagovailoa if Green Bay so desires. Miami is on the right track and has the chance to win a playoff game for the first time since December 2000.
William Hill (not to be confused with the sports betting of the same name) is contributing to VSiN’s Point Spread Weekly.
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