BMCE Capital Global Research (BKGR) published its “Strategy” for the month of July in which the group affirms that the recovery of the Moroccan national economy is being confirmed, as evidenced by activity during the second quarter of 2021.

Morocco is therefore still showing “a strong capacity” to adapt to the evolution of the pandemic despite its high speed spread, always managing to manage the situation well and the recent tightening of health restrictions aims to preserve the disease. gains, particularly economic ones, the report indicates.

Under these conditions, activity increased in the second quarter by 12.6%, driven by the rebound in agricultural value added by 19.3% and non-agricultural value by 11.7%. The historic harvest thus resulted in the creation of around 318,000 jobs in the second quarter year-on-year.

The increase in the unemployment rate from 0.5 pt to 12.8% can however be explained by the expansion of the active population, which increased by 4.5%.

In this wake, the High Commission for Planning (HCP) unveiled its projections for the year 2021 which overall expect economic growth of 5.8%, conditioned by the improvement of the health situation. Thus, public finances experience an attenuating budget deficit at the end of the first half of the year of -4.5% compared to the same period of the previous year.

This attenuation stems in particular from the resilience of tax revenues such as income tax (IR) and value added tax (VAT) which increased by 14.3% to 24.3 billion dirhams (billion dirhams) and 19.5% to 35.7 (MMDH) respectively.

To finance its deficit, the Argentier du Royaume still relies on the internal debt market on which it raised nearly MAD 73.4 billion, down 14.5%, taking advantage in particular of the impact of the large drawings made in end of 2020 both nationally and internationally, including the issuance of a Euro Bonds of 3 billion dollars in December.

The trade deficit widened at the end of June from 13% to 97.4 billion dirhams under the effect of the resumption of imports from 19.5% to 250.3 billion dirhams, supported mainly by the resumption of purchases of finished consumer products by 36% and capital goods by 11.5%.

National exports recorded an increase of 24% to 152.9 billion dirhams, in particular by the automotive industry (42.8% for 42.3 billion dirhams) and that of phosphates (23.8% to 31 billion dirhams).

Transactions recorded in the stock market during the month of July reached around 8.7 billion dirhams against only 1.3 billion dirhams in the same month of the previous year.

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