The figure can make you dizzy. The total bill for climate claims over the period 2020-2050 could double compared to the previous 30 years, estimated the French Insurance Federation (FFA) in a report published Thursday, October 28. They would represent 143 billion euros by 2050 against 69 billion euros between 1989 and 2019. The increase in the “insurable mass”, due to the increase in wealth, would be “the first explanatory factor” counting for a little more than half of the increase in claims, explained Franck Le Vallois, director general of the FFA.

For example, the development of a city of 10%, by extending the built-up areas, can result in an increase of 50% of the loss in the event of a disaster, explained José Bardaji, director of statistics and economic research. of the FFA. Then comes global warming, responsible for a third of the increase. The rest of the increase would come from extreme events, linked to the natural variability of the climate, and the distribution of populations with, for example, a concentration on the edges of rivers.

By type of disaster, droughts will become more and more frequent and their cost could triple, to 43 billion euros in cumulative by 2050. Floods, “more and more frequent and more and more expensive”, according to José Bardaji, would see their load increase by 81%, to 50 billion euros. As for storms and marine submersions, the amount of claims could increase by 46% and 133% respectively, to reach 46 and 4 billion euros.

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All these assumptions were based on a “pessimistic” scenario, leading to a warming of 4 degrees by 2100 compared to the pre-industrial period, thus well above the target of 1.5 degrees of l ‘Paris Agreement. The UN said on Tuesday that states must multiply their ambitions by 7 to respect the agreement.

According to the Central Reinsurance Fund, which unveiled its own estimates Thursday but on a different basis, “the frequency of extreme droughts (comparable to that of 2003, note) would double in 2050”. “The north of France will be more and more affected and will join the south,” explained David Moncoulon, research and development director of the public reinsurer.

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