Two diametrically opposed trajectories: this is how we can describe the behavior of American technology stocks and those of their Chinese counterparts in recent weeks. Beijing, which had already struck hard against Alibaba, has for several days been carrying out a regulatory tightening of the screw on its tech champions: Didi, Tencent or even the juicy business of online courses are in the crosshairs of the Chinese authorities, even raising questions about the risk of delisting some of these large groups listed on the American markets.
We know that technological issues have been sensitive for some time between the United States and China, and in particular the issue of the listing of Chinese groups on American stock exchanges, but this is a direct conflict between the Chinese authorities and the country’s big technology companies, leading the big Chinese stock indexes to multi-month lows… while the US tech giants (the behemoths of the Nasdaq100, Editor’s note) continue to set records.
It is in this particular context that the week begins in which the quarterly results of GAFA will be published. They should be good again, and, as usual, the market will be watching the projections for the coming months. Tesla publishes its results Monday night, Tuesday it’s Apple, Microsoft and Alphabet, Wednesday it’s Facebook’s turn. And finally Amazon will publish Thursday evening, always after the close of the American markets.
The question of consolidating the Nasdaq 100, an index whose values account for nearly 50% of the total capitalization, clearly arises: the good expected results are already reflected in the rise in prices in recent months and the index has also benefited from a decline in recent months in US long rates and in particular real rates, which maintains the TINA effect (There Is No Alternative to low rates). The Delta variant wave may also have benefited a little from these (growth) stocks at times when certain profits are taken on cyclical stocks.
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But it’s possible that part of the market is underestimating the Fed’s tone on Wednesday night and at the central bankers’ symposium in Jackson Hole in August. The price indexes across the Atlantic still do not reflect any lull and the Fed could modify its rhetoric a little on the only “transitory” nature of inflation, or at least on the “duration” of this transition.
In some countries, such as the UK, the wave of the Delta variant is already ebbing, which could reassure central bankers and lead to a projection beyond this short-term noise, thus reinforcing discussions on a slowdown. asset purchases.
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