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OCTA Research cited on Monday, August 2nd, in the face of criticism from a member of the Department of Health’s expert group that the data they used is in line with pandemic trends.

“I would like to thank my colleague Dr. Defend Guido David, who is mainly responsible for the calculations of the R [reproduction number]. If you look at his calculations, which are the official OCTA calculations for March R values ​​- these were the values ​​we use to urge the government to close earlier to avoid the tragedy that we saw in March and April experienced to prevent – it turns out that these numbers are actually very comparable to the numbers that were published by Imperial College London at the University of Sussex. So you have numbers that OCTA produces that are comparable to international organizations that calculate the same, “said biologist-priest Nicanor Austriaco of OCTA Research in an ANC interview.

He also stated that an absolute value is not as important as the pandemic trend.

“One of the things we keep pointing out when we see an increasing trend in the R, especially when there is a dramatic increase in the R trend, be it 1.12 or 1.16, the fact that it changed from 0.8 a week ago is what we’re looking at, ”he added.

Dr. Edsel Salvana, member of the DOH Technical Advisory Group, criticized OCTA on Monday for “problematic” modeling due to “incomplete and inconsistent” data.

“Our data says it all. We predicted every single increase. When the health ministry basically denied the existence of a spike, we warned of the spike and asked the government to lock it down earlier in early March. It didn’t happen, “said Austriaco.

” These models, which are the data that we produce, have also been consistent with the trends and dynamics of the pandemic over the past 15, 16 months, “he emphasized. </ Austriaco further pointed out that OCTA's data and forecasts are all published and are “subject to peer review”.

“What really stands out is that we unlike many other government agencies around the world have no sense of the predictions and predictions of the DOH. I’ve never seen it published. It is interesting that the criticism is that we are not responsible. Our data is very transparent, “he said.

The OCTA fellow reiterated that the group believes that a collaborative transmission of the highly transmissible Delta-COVID-19 variant already exists in the country,” simply because it is Delta COVID patients exist and the number of Delta COVID patients is increasing, especially in the NCR ”. [National Capital Region]. “

” In his [Salvana] remarks, he indicated that the DOH is conducting all studies to confirm this reality. But I think most of the people who look at the dissemination looking at the data will pretty much conclude that there was a community broadcast even though there has been no formal confirmation of it, ”Austriaco said.

Ref: https://mb.com.ph