PATRIOTS THIS WEEK Patriots (3-4) at Chargers (4-2), 4:25 p.m. (CBS) Spread: Chargers by 5Outlook: Is this game ready for a surprise? Why not? The Patriots have beaten the Chargers six times in a row, including 45-0 last year, with Bill Belichick’s defense capping QB Justin Herbert to 49% accuracy and 3.9 yards per attempt with two picks. Straightforwardly, this time around, I like chargers goodbye, but I’ll still be leaning on those pesky patriots with the dots. Prediction: Chargers, 27-23

GAME OF THE WEEKBuccaneers (6-1) at Saints (4-2), 4:25 p.m. (FOX) Spread: Buccaneers at 5 1/2 Outlook: Tampa, who has four straight wins, visits a Saints squad that has won two consecutive times and the last Time that Bucs made fit. Prior to Tampa’s 30:20 playoff win last season, the Saints had won five in a row in that league rivalry – with two wins over Tom Brady with a combined 72:26 last year. Still, I can’t trust Brady and this big offense to find a way to win, but watch the Saints prove the line of action is a little too big. Prediction: Buccaneers, 27-23

UPSET OF THE WEEKEagles (2-5) at Lions (0-7), 13:00 (FUCHS)
Spread: Eagles by 3 1 / 2.Outlook: After seven defeats in a row for the last NFL team without a win, coach Dan (man) Campbell can finally bite off someone’s kneecap. Detroit is a bad team, but lost some luck with two points against the Ravens and Vikings. Beating a subpar Philly team that limps after two straight defeats is less of a clue than a persistent one. Prediction: Lions, 27-23.

@Bills (4-2, -13 1/2) over Dolphins (1-6), 34-19: Buffalo is second in the ranking and tied in first place in the fewest allowed points. Miami ranks 29th in the ranking and 31st in defense. Buffalo is at home on a 9-1 run. And Josh Allen has 19 touchdown passes against Miami in seven career starts. Do I have to go ahead?

@Falcons (3-3, -3) over Panthers (3-4), 24-17: Atlanta won (and covered) six games in a row in this AFC South scrum, and Matt Ryan is way better than a struggling Sam Darnold without Christian McCaffrey.

49ers (2-4, -3 1/2) over @Bears (3-4), 19-17: Jimmy Garoppolo was on his return from his Injury shaky last week and Bears rookie Justin Fields is really struggling. But I’m still saddling the house dogs with that extra half point.

@Browns (4-3, -3 1/2) over Steelers (3-3), 23-20: Both rivals should be rested, with Browns being played last Thursday and Steelers got a bye. Baker Mayfield is expected to play with a crooked left shoulder, but Case Keenum is a decent backup and running back Nick Chubb is expected.

Titans (5-2, 1 1/2) over @Colts (3-4 ), 30-23: The Titans treated the Colts 25-16 in Week 3, but those two have split 5-5 in the last 10 meetings. If Titans has the same defensive intensity as Patrick Mahomes, Carson Wentz will have trouble.

Bengals (5-2, -10 1/2) over @Jets (1-5), 37-6: The Jets lack QB Zach Wilson and Start Mike White. How much fun will Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase have against a Jets D who only allowed 54 points from Mac Jones and Pats?

Rams (6-1, -14 1/2) @over Texans (1- 6), 28-16: QB Tyrod Taylor could start (or at least be ready to step in) for the first time since Week 2, giving Houston – outbidding 62-8 in the last two games – a chance for cover.

@ Seahawks (2-5, -3) over Jaguars (1-5), 24-17: Seattle has avoided its first losing streak of four games since 2009 and the decline from injured Russell Wilson has been extreme, but Geno Smith is doing enough here a small number to cover.

@ Broncos (3-4, -3) over Washington (2-5), 27-16: The lead here is in defense. Denvers is pretty good. Washington gives up the most points in the league. The concern is that Teddy Bridgewater (five picks in three games) is stupid and sloppy again.

Cowboys (5-1, -1 1/2) via @Vikings (3-3), 37-31: The Sunday night’s stage is an expected shootout between Dak Prescott and Kirk Cousins. The selection here assumes that Prescott (calf trunk) is good to walk as expected. Dallas are 7-1 in their last eight prime-time games, but that trend is drawing to a close.

@Chiefs (3-4, -10) over Giants (2-5), 34-21 : The Monday night booter will treat this like a nationally televised autopsy: What’s wrong with Kansas City !? But with Saquon Barkley and Kenny Golloday doubtful again, he makes it a prime-time defeat for Giants for the ninth time in a row.

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