After a slow start on Sunday, the Madrid Masters continues today with 10 first round games. Dan Weston rates the bets …
“With the exception of a loss to Taylor Fritz in 2019, Dimitrov fought tough opponents in Madrid – mostly top 10 or top 20 players, with Dimitrov either a minor one Favorite or an outsider – and against today’s opponent Lloyd Harris. ” also has no abundance of clay pedigree. “
On the first day in Madrid there were wins for Tommy Paul, Denis Shapovalov, Alexander Bublik and Alex De Minaur. Only the four games took place on the opening day on Sunday. I’m always a little confused about why some tournaments are on Have a few games on Sunday – why not just play today and have a schedule for 14 games on Monday?
The way it is, there are only ten to choose from today, and there are only two spots that really look a little out of place. Both will take place today at 10:00 UK time in the first games on the program.
Given the fast-paced conditions traditionally prevailing in Madrid, big servers should benefit more from the conditions than conventional clay locations that play noticeably slower With that in mind, John Isner could be one who is less likely to negate his serve here compared to Sand in general, and he’s set a reasonably decent record in Madrid in the past and i Reached the quarterfinals twice in his last two appearances.
Isner’s penchant for tiebreaks is illustrated by the last two tournaments here. He has played 11 tiebreaks in 18 sets at these events in Madrid and a close match is expected today if he takes on Miomir Kecmanovic.
He turned 36 last week and hasn’t won three games in a row in a tournament in Acapulco since February last year. His record since resuming the tour last summer is mediocre at 7-6. His numbers currently indicate a very serve-oriented, average player at the ATP level. Opponent Kecmanovic is on an upward trend and is slowly improving over sand after winning in Kitzbühel in September last year under fast conditions. Isner is 2,407 / 5 up for grabs and that looks a bit generous, but I’m not convinced of Isner’s current level.
Grigor Dimitrov has done reasonably well this year, making the quarter-finals of the Australian Open and a few quarter-finals lower events. A few weeks ago the Bulgarian took a few wins as a favorite in Monte Carlo. A 6-1 loss to Rafa Nadal on slow clay is something many players can likely relate to and Dimitrov could be another player who likes the faster conditions in Madrid.
Dimitrov is 1.434 / 9, to get past the South African this morning, and even as a favorite with relatively short prices, that seems to me to be of some value. Based on general market lines, we should get around 1.9010 / 11 leading up to the game on Dimitrov -3.5 games and I think this is a reasonable reasonable place. As always, caution should be exercised in the opening round, but that price looks just as good today in my view.
Most of today’s games are well priced, with a few catching your eye. Ugo Humbert against Aslan Karatsev looks like the match of the round, with two players for the top 30 – also in the 10:00 game. There’s a lot more evidence that Karatsev is a parenting clay courier, and it’s not surprising to see the Russian favorite at 1.331 / 3.
For a slightly shorter price, I’m also interested in continuing Carlos’s advancement Alcaraz Garfia with the Spanish talent receiving a friendly draw against French Adrian Mannarino, who tends to do his best job outside of the clay.
Mannarino will likely get the faster terms in Madrid compared to most sand clubs enjoy, but I’m looking forward to an Alcaraz win today to start a fascinating duel with Rafa Nadal in the second round against Rafa Nadal. King of Clay meets the Spanish clay courier currently on tour with the highest potential.
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