Justin Trudeau’s Liberals have been in power in Canada since 2015. They were reappointed in October 2019 but without a majority in Parliament, which therefore limited the power of action of this second term. On average, the lifespan of a minority government in Canada is 18 months, two years at most. The Canadian Prime Minister knows it: he wants to keep control of the political agenda and, driven by a favorable wind in the polls, to cut the rug from under the feet of his opponents and to call these federal elections, scheduled for September 20, 2021. .
In the hope of being re-elected and this time obtaining a majority, Justin Trudeau will highlight in this electoral campaign the management of the pandemic by his government, with in particular the success of the vaccination campaign (more than 70% fully vaccinated Canadians to date, Canada is one of the countries in the world with the most people vaccinated) and the many programs in place to help Canadians and Canadian businesses navigate this unprecedented crisis . “People understand that for 17 months, we have been engaged in the fight against this pandemic and it is not over yet. It has always been and will always be our priority. This is what we have been doing for 17 months. This is what we will continue to do, ”explained Justin Trudeau recently.
The Liberals have yet to reveal their election platform, a consultation with their activists is underway to determine what their main concerns are and what themes they would like to see highlighted during this election campaign. According to several sources, Justin Trudeau’s troops are looking for inspiration and ideas to launch mobilizing proposals supported by this platform. “There is no shortage of ideas. We will be able to deliver a campaign and a platform, and above all a vision of the future which will be in great contrast to the smallness of Mr. O’Toole’s approach, ”declared the Liberal leader.
The election posters highlight Justin Trudeau, accompanied by the candidate and we focus on the concept of the team around the leader who promises to offer Canadians innovative ideas to rebuild the country after the epidemic: Justin Trudeau loves election campaigns : his strength is the terrain, going to meet the Canadiens. The first days of the election campaign were marked by a striking contrast between a liberal leader all smiles in a crowd and the Conservative leader alone in the deserted hall of a hotel in a zoom meeting …
The Liberals’ main opponent is the Conservatives. And this ballot will be the electoral baptism of their new leader, elected a year ago, Erin O’Toole. Since taking the reins of political training, Erin O’Toole has worked hard to make himself known to Canadians on the one hand and to refocus the Conservative Party in order to regain power, but without losing the base. lasts of this formation which is the most on the right on the Canadian political spectrum. It is a difficult exercise … The conservative leader, for example, tries to seduce the workers’ electorate, which could make a difference in some thirty constituencies.
Among the measures proposed by Erin O’Toole, the protection of pension plans and the integration of workers into company boards. The new Conservative leader has also put forward measures to help Canadians, such as extending unemployment benefits in the event of serious illness. He also tries to present a progressive image, at least much less rigid than the previous Conservative leader Andrew Scheer. We will have to see if this refocusing of the Conservative program and its leader will have an impact on the vote of Canadians, which is perhaps what already explains why the party has won important points in recent days in the polls, to lead the Conservatives neck and neck in voting intentions with the Liberals, who were several points ahead at the start of this campaign.
The most left-wing party on the Canadian political spectrum, the New Democratic Party, will try to do better in this election than in October 2019, where it lost a lot of feathers by winning just 24 seats. It was then the first election campaign for new leader Jagmeet Singh, a native Sikh with colorful turbans and progressive values. Based on this first experience, can the NDP leader lead his troops to major gains this time around? One thing is certain, the NDP will not win these elections: the polls place it in third place, with about 20% of the voters’ voting intentions.
For its part, the Bloc Québécois risks playing the spoiler again in Quebec: this political party which defends the interests of Quebec in Ottawa cannot claim power, since it presents candidates only in the province of Quebec, but he divides the vote of Quebecers and in the 2019 election, he created a surprise by winning 32 seats, depriving the Liberals of a majority. The Bloc troops, led by their combative leader Yves-François Blanchet, can aspire to do as well if not better than they did two years ago. And yet again deprive Justin Trudeau – or Erin O’Toole – of a majority.
As for the Green Party of Canada, ecological training, entangled in a leadership crisis with the new leader, Annamie Paul, it remains marginal in the debates.
An opinion poll conducted by specialists on behalf of Radio-Canada among more than 34,000 Canadians indicates that the main issue for voters is the environment. The recovery of the economy and the management of the pandemic follow. However, for the moment, the climate change file is absent from the debates and it will be necessary to see what place it will occupy in the programs of the parties, in particular that of the Liberals because obviously, Justin Trudeau will not be able to surf only on his rate of popularity linked to his management of the health crisis to get re-elected.
Once again, these elections will be won in Quebec and especially in Ontario, more precisely in the greater Toronto suburbs. This is where the ballots are won in Canada and it is in Quebec that a majority is won – or lost.
There are three weeks left of this electoral campaign which, so far, has been purring without much fanfare in the mildness of this end of summer. Back to school marks the end of the vacation for many Canadians who will be more inclined to pay attention to each other’s attempts to seduce.