MANILA, Philippines – The Philippines were among the Asia-Pacific countries with the highest economic risk due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, ranking 15th out of 20 countries ranked by Moody’s Analytics.
Moody’s Analytics released its Relative COVID-19 Economic Risk Index on Monday, the countries in the region weighting 50 percent on vaccination rate and 25 percent each on new COVID-19 cases and deaths per million people over the last seven -Day deadline.
“All three factors should be taken into account to determine the relative economic risk, as countries with a combination of low vaccination rates, high incidence of new cases and high death rates would be at high risk of prolonged and more stringent movement controls that would slow down. “Or slow down the pace of economic growth,” explained Moody’s Analytics.
In first place or with the The lowest risk was Singapore, followed by China, Cambodia, Hong Kong and Japan.
Among the members of the Asean (Association of Southeast Asian Nations), Laos took 9th place, while Brunei was 14th, one notch higher than the Philippines .
Four other ASEAN countries that recently struggled with their worst outbreaks were below the Philippines: Indonesia (16th), Vietnam (17th), Thailand (19th), and lastly Malaysia.
Per factor, the Philippines ranks 13th in the vaccination rate in the Asia-Pacific region, with 12 percent of the population being fully vaccinated.
In terms of new infections per million people, the Philippines had 135.6 new infections per one Million Filipinos in 15th place.
In terms of new deaths, the Philippines was also in 15th place with 2,349 deaths per million inhabitants.
“The relative COVID-19 economic risk index gives an indication of where further risks are through the wi the economic consequences of COVID-19. Those who rank low could face even longer bans or stricter social distancing measures if conditions don’t improve. And if so, these governments may need to respond with further fiscal support to manage the economic impact on households, small businesses and industries that are particularly hard hit by COVID-19, “said Moody’s Analytics.
In this context, Moody’s Analytics projected gross domestic product (GDP) for the Philippines to grow by 4 percent this year – at the lower end of the government’s downgraded growth target of 4 to 5 percent.
“The Philippines and Indonesia will be less effective Fighting COVID-19 policies – vaccine shortages and ineffective social distancing measures – that create a lot of uncertainty about when to recover, “said Moody’s Analytics.
Moody’s Analytics assumes that headline inflation is within Bangko Sentral ng’s target range Pilipinas (GNP) will exceed 2-4 percent and will average 4.3 percent by the end of 2021. The unemployment rate would also remain high at 7.9 percent, estimates by Moody’s Analytics showed.
Retail sales would likely grow 9.4 percent this year, a reversal of the 10.2 percent decline in the middle of last year worst annual post-war recession in the Philippines.
Moody’s Analytics said that in terms of economic recovery, “The Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore and Hong Kong were the most volatile; Both recorded a quarter-on-quarter decline in GDP in the second quarter of this year. ”
While the Philippines’ GDP rose 11.8 percent year over year in the second quarter, due to the low base since the strictest lockdown last year The year, which brought 75 percent of the economy to a standstill, April-June production shrank 1.3 percent from first-quarter GDP, given Metro Manila and four surrounding provinces, which account for half of economic activity, in April a surge in COVID-19 cases returned to Extended Community Quarantine (ECQ).
Metro Manila returned to a 15-day ECQ this month due to the threat of the more contagious Delta strain of COVID-19. </ Moody's Analytics said that the Asia-Pacific region as a whole has already benefited from the recovery in world trade, “the Philippines, New Zealand and Japan at face value However, exports are only showing modest growth from pre-pandemic highs, and the outlook is not “strong.”
“The Philippines has little exposure to commodities with the US,” noted Moody’s Analytics.
You can find more news about the novel coronavirus here.
What you need to know about Corona.
For more information on COVID-19, call the DOH hotline: (02) 86517800 local 1149/1150.
The Inquirer Foundation supports our frontliners in the healthcare sector and continues to accept monetary donations that are deposited into the current account of Banco de Oro (BDO) # 007960018860 or donated via PayMaya via this link.
Subscribe to INQUIRER PLUS to Get access to the other 70 titles of the Philippine Daily Inquirer &, share up to 5 gadgets, listen to the news, download & as early as 4am and share articles on social media. Call 896 6000.