Headline retail price inflation based on the consumer price index may have peaked, Motilal Oswal Financial Services said. According to MOFSL Research, the peak-out trend could provide some relief for market participants, especially in the bond segment.

“We assume that the IIP will remain largely unchanged year-on-year in June 21, before moving from July to August 21 reported a slight year-on-year growth of 1-2 percent. ” “Overall, we’re not seeing any RBI migration rates in FY22.”

“The number was slightly above our expectation of 6.1 percent, but below the Bloomberg consensus of 6.6 percent year-on-year as of June 21. Even more important is that pricing data for June 21 was collected from 80 percent of the markets, compared to 68 percent on May 21, implying better reporting as lockdown rules were relaxed in several states over the past month. “

The Food inflation was 5.2 percent YoY in June 2021, down from 5 percent in May, fuel and light inflation rose to 12.7 percent YoY, and clothing and footwear inflation 6.2 percent YoY.

“On the other hand, inflation for various items in June 21 was unchanged at 7.3 percent year-on-year.”

“For miscellaneous items, education and household goods and services were the only sub-components included in the June 21 reported higher year-on-year inflation. “

Additionally, the MOFSL expects the IIP to remain broadly unchanged year-on-year in June 2021, before seeing modest 1-2 percent growth in July-August 2021 Annual comparison reports.

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