The Conservatives have gained an advantage as Liberal support has waned over the last three days of the campaign, such as the nightly tracking of Nanos Research for CTV News and Globe and Mail.
In the latest nightly tracking data, which ends Friday and was released Saturday morning, Conservative support is 33.3 percent, while Liberals are 30.8 percent.
“Last night was a terrible night for the tracking Liberals, down more than two points in one day,” Nik Nanos, founder and senior data scientist at Nanos Research, told the CTV News Channel on Saturday.
“What was a tie earlier this week, it looks like the Conservatives are now gaining the upper hand and the Liberals are definitely under pressure right now.”
The result shows that the Conservatives will continue during the election campaign that began on August 15, a gap of 1.1 percentage points, well within the poll’s margin of error of ± 2.8 percentage points, 19 out of 20.
Meanwhile, the gap between Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau and Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole continues to narrow as support for Trudeau has declined in the last three nights of election follow-up following the Nanos data.
O’Toole saw his support as the Preferred Candidate jump from 24 percent on August 23 to 27.2 percent in the most recent tracking. Trudeau’s support has decreased from 32.7 percent on August 23 to 29.9 percent.
“[O’Toole’s] personal brand was the big winner in the first part of this campaign, while fewer and fewer Canadians believe Justin Trudeau would be their preferred choice as prime minister,” said Nanos.
Meanwhile, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh continues to advance as the preferred candidate with 20.1 percent support, up from 19.4 percent on August 23.
“The New Democrats are slowly picking up speed. So what we are seeing right now are changes from Liberals and New Democrats. That may not be good for Justin Trudeau, but it is good for Jagmeet Singh. “
The developing crisis in Afghanistan continued to dominate the election campaign this week as Canada marked the end of its evacuation efforts in Kabul – a major issue that may be fueling Conservative support.
“Afghanistan is one of these crucial issues. It will likely not lead to actual votes, but it will likely fuel the brands of the various party leaders, and in this particular case the controversy and crisis in Afghanistan happens to happen with what I will say falling numbers for Justin Trudeau, “said Nanos.
“At the same time, O’Toole has published his counter-plan against Justin Trudeau to Afghanistan and the number is increasing.”
Vaccination records also remain number one with Canadian voters, but Nanos believes the issue has so far been overshadowed by other major issues such as housing affordability and health care.
“The campaign was overcome with problems related to Afghanistan, health care, mental health, homelessness and housing affordability. So [it’s] still an important issue that I expect the Liberals will try to drive to their advantage against O’Toole, but not as much as a driver compared to many other firefights that have been on a big one Diversity takes place from political issues, ”he said.
During the entire campaign, Nanos Research carried out a national random telephone survey (landline and mobile network sample with living agents) among 1,200 Canadians over a period of three days. Every evening a new group of 400 eligible voters is interviewed. The daily tracking numbers are based on a three-day rolling sample of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking, a new day is added to the survey and the oldest day is deleted. The error rate in a survey of 1,200 respondents is ± 2.8 percentage points, 19 out of 20.
The sample of respondents is stratified by geography and gender. The data can be weighted by age according to the 2016 Canadian Census data maintained by Statistics Canada. The reported percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
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